Retailers continue to operate amid a dynamic risk landscape. Loss drivers are increasingly severity-driven and include organized crime rings, cargo theft, ransomware incidents and catastrophe-driven business interruptions.
Although the commercial market as a whole has seen softening conditions, specific segments (e.g., casualty and umbrella/excess) remain firm. As such, retailers with higher physical crime exposure, hazardous or high-liability products, or weak risk management controls may face tighter underwriting, higher deductibles or reduced capacity. Retail organizations that stay abreast of market developments and strengthen loss control measures may be best positioned to secure favorable insurance terms.
Supply Chain Volatility and Trade and Political Risk
Retailers continue to operate amid significant instability. Factors such as rising protectionist trade policy, ongoing tariff pressures and the recent changes to the U.S. de minimis exemption are prompting many retailers to reimagine their supply chains to manage new cost challenges and operational complexities.
Compounding the issue, ongoing geopolitical tensions may further disrupt the flow of goods, services and raw materials in the year ahead. To cope with ongoing turbulence, 66% of retailers are considering onshoring, nearshoring and supplier diversification, according to a recent report by global professional services network, Deloitte.
To mitigate risk and demonstrate insurability, retailers should aim to build visibility across their supply chains, map critical suppliers and identify single points of failure. It may also be prudent to model different interruption scenarios (e.g.,transportation delays or supplier shutdowns) to understand where backup plans or alternative suppliers may be required.
Organizations should also review how their current insurance programs—including marine cargo, stock throughput (STP), contingent business interruption (CBI), trade disruption and political risk policies—protect goods and operations as supply chain and geopolitical conditions evolve.
Retail Theft, Organized Crime and Workplace Violence
Economic headwinds in the year ahead could heighten the risk of retail-related crime. Retail theft is becoming more sophisticated, with organized retail crime (ORC) groups stealing goods at scale and reselling them through coordinated criminal networks. These groups are showing increasing levels of violence and often target high-value goods (e.g., electronics, designer apparel) in “smash-and-grab” incidents, alongside digital fraud and other large-scale operations. According to the National Retail Federation, 67% of retailers reported activity linked to a transnational ORC group in the past 12 months.
Organizations should review their crime policies to ensure that definitions and sublimits align with modern theft patterns and organized crime tactics, particularly where distinctions between robbery, burglary and third-party theft could affect coverage. They should also consider employee dishonesty provisions, as economic pressures may heighten the risk of internal theft.
Beyond crime coverage, organizations should evaluate potential general liability and workers’ compensation exposures from injuries that occur during theft attempts or violent incidents, and consider how umbrella coverage might apply to severe or multiple-injury losses.
Alongside policy considerations, retailers should adopt a multi-layered security approach that includes robust protocols (e.g., surveillance cameras, targeted lighting to eliminate blind spots, and secure stockroom procedures), de-escalation training, cash-handling controls, and close coordination with landlords and law enforcement. A robust incident-response plan is also essential.
Cargo Theft and Supply Chain Crime
Beyond store-level theft, organized crime groups increasingly target retail supply chains through cargo theft and impersonation schemes. Fraudsters may use falsified or stolen credentials to pose as legitimate carriers or brokers to trick warehouses into releasing freight in fictitious pickup scams. Criminals also leverage digital tools and social engineering tactics to gather shipment intelligence and intercept communications. According to CargoNet, the average stolen shipment value exceeded $336,000 in the third quarter of 2025, almost double the prior year’s figure, suggesting that cargo thieves are becoming more strategic in selecting high-value targets.
Organizations should work to mitigate the risk of cargo theft by implementing stronger transportation security practices, including requiring carriers and brokers to verify driver identities and load details before releasing freight, using GPS and telematics to monitor routes and detect shipment deviations, and robustly vetting transportation partners. Retailers may also benefit from clarifying contractual agreements with logistics partners (e.g., indemnification, limits and claims-handling responsibilities).
Since theft can occur anywhere along the supply chain, from inbound shipments to last-mile delivery, retailers should check that their coverage aligns with today’s cargo crime risks by evaluating inland marine, STP, motor truck cargo and CBI policies for any gaps.
Cyber and Digital Risk
As e-commerce continues to grow and retail systems become increasingly interconnected, threat actors gain more entry points from which to launch attacks, steal data or compromise critical systems. Attackers may target point-of-sale systems, third-party software integrations, and e-commerce websites and apps. Just one breach along the supply chain can cause significant operational disruptions, affecting both physical stores and online channels.
Although the cyber insurance market has experienced softening conditions in recent years, its stability may be challenged by several major loss drivers, including ransomware, AI-driven social engineering scams and data theft. In fact, the FBI reported that cybercrime losses reached $16.6 billion in 2024, a 33% increase from the year before, and cyber incidents are the top business risk in 2026, according to Allianz.
To reduce disruption, retailers should evaluate cybersecurity across their entire supply chain and require vendors to meet robust cybersecurity standards. Backup options (e.g., alternative payment processors and secondary suppliers) can help maintain operations if a system or partner is breached. Risk management measures, including multifactor authentication, network segmentation, privileged access controls, incident response planning, backup restoration testing and robust workforce training, may be essential to secure favorable insurance terms.
Retail cyber incidents often trigger losses that span multiple policy lines. As such, organizations should align cyber insurance with crime, property and business interruption (BI) insurance to avoid coverage gaps. Checking definitions and exclusions is important, particularly for social engineering losses, which can fall between cyber and crime policies, and for BI coverage, where waiting periods and trigger points may differ across policies.
Conclusion
Several trends, including retail and cargo theft, supply chain volatility and cybersecurity challenges, are impacting the retail sector in 2026. However, by tracking these developments and adopting robust risk management practices, retail businesses can increase resilience and position themselves for success.
For more industry insight, contact the friendly insurance experts at Deeley Insurance Group. Call or text 410.213.5600 today.
